NUVASTRA/AI RISK TRAJECTORYALPHA 0.2
Evidence snapshot 2026-09-17Methodology 0.2Evidence snapshot compiled through 17 September 2026. This is a causal evidence model, not a probability forecast or political rating.
EVIDENCE SNAPSHOT · 2026-09-17

Where AI risk evidence
actually reaches today.

AI Risk Trajectory separates what has been observed from what is inferred, what stands in the way, and what would have to become true next. It is a causal evidence system — not a probability of catastrophe.

7 risk systems10 core source familiesFirst baseline snapshot
Current picture

Five statements the current evidence supports without collapsing everything into a single risk score.

Evidence frontiers

Each line is a causal progression, not a percentage and not a prediction of when an outcome will occur.